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Flood exposure contributes to under-five mortality in low- and middle-income countries

Elsevier, One Earth, Volume 8, 16 May 2025
Authors
P., Li, Pengfei, M., Tong, Mingkun, J., Wu, Jingyi, X., Meng, Xia, X., Fan, Xinguang, X., Sun, Xiaofei et al.

Flood, a natural disaster closely related to global climate change, harms child health. However, the long-term effect of flood exposure on child mortality is unknown, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Here, based on a sibling-matched case-control design and exposure data of 913 large flood events, we first estimate the under-5 deaths (U5Ds) attributable to long-term flood exposure in 100 LMICs, where there are >90% of global U5Ds. We find that, in 2017, in the 100 LMICs, 26.4% of children 5 years of age were exposed to flood at least once during their life course, which was associated with 33,000 (95% confidence interval [CI] 4,000, 57,000) premature deaths. The chronic effect could be significantly larger than direct child mortality attributable to natural forces (i.e., 832 [95% CI 806, 856] U5Ds). The long-term health impacts of floods are nonnegligible, and the vulnerable communities identified in this study can help plan relevant climate-health services and public health interventions.

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