Glacier change threatens Central Asia's water towers

Glaciers in the Tien Shan serve as vital “water towers” for Central Asia, but their rapid retreat under climate warming threatens regional water security. This study investigated glacier changes and evaluated their impacts on regional water resources using multi-temporal imagery, integrated with glacier, hydrological, and climatic datasets. Results show widespread and accelerating glacier mass loss, rapid expansion of glacial lakes, and pronounced spatial divergence in runoff responses across basins. The outer mountain ranges experienced particularly strong glacier shrinkage and lake-area growth. Basins with high glacier coverage generally exhibited increasing runoff, whereas less-glacierized basins showed unstable or decreasing runoff, especially where meltwater contributions are approaching peak levels. Overall, these findings demonstrate that glacier retreat compromises the long-term stability and sustainability of Central Asia's water resources by depleting cryospheric storage, altering hydrological processes, intensifying glacial lake development, and accelerating the shift toward declining water availability after peak melt.