Approaching unsafe limits: climate-related health inequities within and beyond Europe

For the first time in history, it is estimated that it is more likely than not that global near-surface temperatures will temporarily overshoot 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels before 2028; demonstrating that the world is edging closer to the 1.5 °C planetary boundary and is failing to adequately cut emissions.1 Simultaneously, sea temperatures are rising remarkably (2023), with expected further increases due to emerging El Niño conditions (the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation) which will likely aggregate extreme weather worldwide. In Europe, temperatures are soaring twice the global average, with past decades characterised by unprecedented warming (Fig. 1) and escalating extreme conditions. Countries are now bracing themselves for another ferocious summer dominated by heat stress, droughts, water shortages, and farmers losing their harvests.