MESIA Solar Outlook Report

Solar Market Growth, Technology Shifts, and Energy Transition Across MENA

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Foreword: Solar’s Expanding Role in the Regional Energy Landscape

The report opens by presenting 2019 as another year that confirmed the growing importance of solar power across the MENA region. Established markets such as Morocco, Egypt, and the UAE continued commissioning major projects and launching additional procurement phases, while other markets including Oman, Kuwait, Tunisia, Pakistan, and Iraq moved further into large-scale solar development.

It describes the solar sector as expanding well beyond flagship utility projects. Rooftop and decentralized demand in commercial, industrial, and residential segments is rising, driven by subsidy reform, improved regulation, and growing recognition that solar can increasingly compete with conventional generation. Solar is also beginning to spread into other end uses, including buildings, desalination, district energy, and clean transport.

The foreword also highlights the role of falling costs, maturing finance, and technology innovation. Lower solar panel prices, access to cheaper capital, and the emergence of new technical solutions are shown as key reasons why solar is strengthening its position across the region.

Introduction: A Region Under Pressure to Diversify Power Supply

The introduction places MENA solar growth in a wider global context of rapidly rising photovoltaic deployment. As countries in the region face population growth, industrial expansion, and rising electricity demand, solar is presented as an increasingly obvious response to generation gaps and energy diversification needs.

The report highlights several milestones that illustrate this regional momentum. These include Sweihan in Abu Dhabi entering operation with 1.17 GW, Dubai awarding a 900 MW project at a record-low tariff, Egypt advancing Benban and Kom Ombo, Saudi Arabia bringing Sakaka online and moving forward with new tenders, Morocco setting a new benchmark through Noor Midelt, Oman tendering additional phases, Tunisia awarding new capacity, Jordan reassessing grid absorption limits, Pakistan moving toward stronger renewable targets, and Iraq launching its first meaningful utility-scale solar efforts.

The broader conclusion of the introduction is that the region remains uneven, but solar is no longer marginal. Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and the UAE are presented as the main leaders, with Saudi Arabia positioned to join them at scale.

Investment in Renewable Energy

The investment section emphasizes that renewable energy has attracted very large capital flows globally, even as the unit cost of new solar capacity continues to fall. This means lower investment totals do not necessarily imply slowdown. Instead, they often reflect improving technology economics and cheaper deployment.

Within MENA, the broader energy sector is expected to attract major investment, with the power sector taking the largest share. Renewable energy is therefore framed as a significant investment category within regional infrastructure planning. Development finance institutions remain important, even if their role fluctuates year by year depending on the number and maturity of eligible projects.

The report highlights three important subthemes in this investment landscape. The first is storage, which is presented as a rapidly growing market necessary for grid flexibility. The second is CSP, where future growth depends on better bankability, technology improvement, and project economics. The third is grid interconnectivity, especially in the GCC, where regional power integration is seen as a source of both system savings and renewable support.

At the same time, the report outlines key barriers to investment. These include distorted economics where solar must compete against subsidized fossil-fuel generation, incomplete policy and permitting structures, limited market awareness in some countries, shortages of skilled labor, and financing conditions that still need improvement in several markets.

Solar Trends: Falling Prices, New Technologies, and Wider Applications

The report identifies falling solar prices as one of the defining trends shaping the next phase of regional growth. Dubai’s 900 MW tender is presented as the most recent record-setting example. The decline in module costs and auction prices is shown as reshaping both utility-scale and rooftop economics.

Technology change is another major theme. The report reviews bifacial modules, half-cut cells, perovskite cells, heterojunction technologies, gallium arsenide cells, and other module innovations. Bifacial modules are described as especially important because they can increase generation significantly by capturing light from both sides of the panel, particularly in utility-scale settings designed to benefit from surface reflectivity. Half-cut cells are presented as improving yield and reliability, while heterojunction solutions are associated with stronger performance at higher operating temperatures.

The report also looks at new fields of action beyond conventional PV deployment. Floating solar is presented as a promising but still emerging option that can conserve land and reduce evaporation, though environmental and material risks still need further study. Building-integrated photovoltaics are identified as an area with long-term potential, especially where distributed generation regulation evolves. Organic thin-film photovoltaics are described as a lightweight and flexible emerging technology, still moving from research toward commercial viability.

Robotic cleaning receives special attention because soiling is a major challenge in desert environments. The report notes that while cleaning robots can reduce labor and water needs, long-term reliability in harsh conditions remains a concern. Findings from DEWA’s research are used to show how module degradation varies across technologies under desert conditions, with mono-silicon performing best in the examples cited.

Solar Beyond Electricity: Transport, Desalination, Cooling, and Hydrogen

A notable strength of the report is its focus on solar not only as a source of grid electricity, but also as an enabling energy input for a much wider set of applications. It argues that falling solar and storage costs are opening new pathways for sectors that have traditionally relied heavily on fossil fuels.

Desalination is one of the most important of these. Because desalination is expected to represent a major share of final energy consumption in the region by 2040, combining solar generation with cleaner desalination systems could have a substantial effect on emissions. The report points to developments in Morocco and to initiatives in the UAE and Saudi Arabia that include renewable electricity components in water projects.

Transport is another area of growing relevance. The report expects solar-powered EV charging and cleaner mobility systems to become more important as electric vehicles become more competitive in the region. Cooling and heating are also identified as potential areas for solar integration, especially as storage improves.

The hydrogen section frames green hydrogen as a potentially major long-term breakthrough. Produced through electrolysis using renewable electricity, green hydrogen is described as a solution for long-duration storage, supply-demand balancing, industrial decarbonization, and future clean energy exports. The report presents it as a strategic fit for MENA because of the region’s strong solar resource base and future export potential.

Further Growth in Distributed Generation and C&I Solar

The report makes clear that distributed solar is becoming more important in the region’s evolving energy mix. Dubai is shown as the most advanced example through the Shams Dubai program, which had already connected more than 1,300 installations totaling 125 MW by October 2019. Additional programs in Abu Dhabi, Oman, Egypt, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia indicate wider regional movement, even if implementation varies significantly.

Commercial and industrial solar is described as especially dynamic. The report distinguishes C&I from both residential rooftop and utility-scale solar, arguing that this segment is growing because it is supported by subsidy reductions, more workable wheeling and net-metering frameworks, and specific policy initiatives such as Shams Dubai and Oman’s Sahim scheme.

The report also notes that C&I projects are highly sensitive to regulatory conditions. In some cases, self-generation inside a facility is feasible even without strong export rules. But where net metering or wheeling are absent, excess production and land use become more difficult issues. Even so, the report treats C&I solar as a major growth area across the region.

Energy Planning and System Complexity

Another important theme is the need for more sophisticated energy planning. As utility-scale renewable projects, distributed generation, storage, and connected devices all increase, the power system becomes more complex. The report argues that this complexity cannot be managed with older planning methods alone.

Abu Dhabi is presented as a leading example through its integrated energy modeling work, which projects the emirate’s energy future and assesses trade-offs across multiple system pathways. The report sees these types of tools as increasingly necessary as the boundary between energy producers and consumers becomes more fluid and as power flows become more multidirectional.

This section reinforces one of the report’s central structural messages: the future of solar growth depends not only on panels and project awards, but also on the ability of systems, institutions, and grid operators to understand and manage much more interactive energy networks.

Solar Projects: Construction Pipeline and Upcoming Capacity

The projects section provides a snapshot of the regional pipeline for the period ahead. Among the projects under construction, the report lists major developments including Benban in Egypt, Al Husainiyah in Jordan, Noor Tafilalet in Morocco, Miraah CSP in Oman, Sakaka in Saudi Arabia, and Al Maktoum Phase 4 in the UAE.

It also presents a broad list of upcoming projects across MENA. These include West Nile and Kom Ombo in Egypt, multiple project phases in Kuwait, Al Kharsaah in Qatar, Noor Midelt and other Noor-associated plants in Morocco, Ibri and further solar plans in Oman, new projects in Pakistan, a series of tenders in Saudi Arabia, large announced capacity in Tunisia, Al Maktoum 5 and Al Dhafra in the UAE, and several first-wave projects in Iraq.

The project tables underline the report’s broader point that solar development in the region is moving across multiple stages at once: some countries are expanding mature multi-phase programs, while others are only beginning to establish their first significant pipelines.

Energy Storage: From Niche to System Enabler

The storage chapter argues that intermittency has long been one of the main barriers to wider solar adoption, but that storage is now beginning to change the landscape. Pumped hydro still dominates globally, yet PV-plus-storage and CSP-plus-storage solutions are increasingly relevant for the future of MENA power systems.

Lithium-ion batteries are described as the current dominant technology for battery storage because of their speed, maturity, and falling prices. The report highlights sharp historical cost declines and expects further reductions, making solar-plus-storage more attractive for peak shaving, peaker replacement, energy shifting, ancillary services, and grid support.

Recent regional developments include Jordan’s Al Mafraq project, Lebanon’s interest in large battery-backed solar capacity, Oman’s tender for hybrid solar-diesel-storage systems in remote areas, and Abu Dhabi’s inclusion of battery storage options in the Al Dhafra solar park tender. These examples show storage moving from concept into procurement and project design.

The report also gives substantial attention to CSP storage. While CSP remains geographically limited by direct normal irradiance requirements and higher complexity, it is valued for its ability to provide dispatchable solar power. Morocco and the UAE are presented as the regional leaders, with Noor Midelt and Dubai’s Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park Phase 4 illustrating how hybrid PV-CSP-storage combinations can support more consistent supply.

Country Highlights Across MENA

The regional market section profiles key solar PV markets across MENA, showing both progress and unevenness. Algeria is described as a market with ambitious targets but slower-than-expected implementation, constrained by subsidies, financing challenges, local content rules, and project execution issues. Bahrain is shown as a smaller but active market, with emphasis on rooftop and government-led distributed solar due to limited land availability.

Egypt is presented as one of the region’s strongest utility-scale markets, supported by the Benban solar park, the Kom Ombo project, supportive investment law changes, and a mix of procurement models including feed-in tariffs, IPPs, and tendering. Jordan is shown as an advanced solar market that now faces grid integration challenges as renewable penetration rises, prompting pauses and reassessments of larger new connections.

Kuwait’s section emphasizes that ambition has exceeded execution so far, with important projects such as Shagaya and KNPC’s plans facing coordination and implementation constraints. Morocco stands out for long-term state-backed planning through MASEN, major solar and hybrid projects, and an integrated strategy linking utility-scale development with broader national targets. Oman is presented as a promising market moving forward through Ibri, Amin, Sahim rooftop programs, and hybrid systems for remote supply.

Pakistan is described as a market with major solar resource potential and persistent power shortages, where both central government and provincial initiatives are trying to support larger utility-scale projects, rooftop deployment, and decentralized systems. Saudi Arabia is shown as one of the biggest future-scale opportunities, with very large targets, a structured tendering framework through REPDO, stronger local content requirements, and rising interest in both utility and C&I segments.

Tunisia is presented as a market where tenders and low tariffs show progress, though larger execution challenges remain. The United Arab Emirates is portrayed as the regional frontrunner, combining major utility-scale solar development in Abu Dhabi and Dubai with more advanced distributed generation policies, net metering, sustainability-linked real estate projects, and early movement on storage and floating solar studies. Iraq is described as a market in early-stage takeoff, driven by acute power shortages, first-round tendering for multiple PV projects, and growing interest in distributed solar as a substitute for diesel-based backup supply.

Conclusion

The report concludes that solar development in MENA has so far been led mainly by large utility-scale projects enabled by competitive bidding, falling LCOE, and improving technology. Even so, the direction of travel is broader than utility-scale generation alone. Solar PV is expected to remain the dominant technology, but CSP, storage, distributed generation, and hybrid systems are becoming increasingly important.

Energy storage is identified as a central enabler of the next phase of market growth. Hybrid PV-CSP-storage combinations and falling battery costs are expected to support wider solar deployment across utility, residential, commercial, and industrial segments. The report also stresses that the traditional utility model is beginning to change as self-generation, net metering, wheeling, and greater interaction between producers and consumers become more relevant.

The overall message is that the region is moving toward a more flexible and more distributed solar future. That transition will require stronger regulatory frameworks, better grid and demand-side management, improved storage capacity, and continued innovation. The report ends on a confident note, presenting the solar industry as well positioned for further growth and increasingly central to the region’s clean energy future.